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  Unconventional Thinking: A Commentary by Susan Estrich
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ContributorBrandonius Maximus 
Last EditedBrandonius Maximus  Feb 10, 2008 01:16pm
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CategoryCommentary
News DateSunday, February 10, 2008 07:15:00 PM UTC0:0
DescriptionA long time ago, which is to say at least a month or two ago, I consoled some friends who were despairing of the nastiness of the Democratic race by telling them that whoever won would be the better candidate for it, and that we might need a real race to produce a real winner.

I still believe that.

The conventional wisdom has it that the earlier you wrap up your party's nomination, the more it is worth. The longer it takes to pick a nominee, the more likely that nominee is to lose. I can name plenty of examples of this, any number of whom I've worked for, starting with Carter in 1980 and Mondale in 1984. Then again, Kerry wrapped it up early and easy, and we saw how well he did.

Still, the argument is that the earlier you wrap it up, the sooner you can start putting your own house together and focusing on the general election. The sooner you win, the sooner you stop getting beaten up by your friends, as well as your enemies. The easier it is to win, the less time you have to spend appealing to the party ideologues who tend to control the early contests, rather than the independent voters who decide general elections.

So, according to the conventional wisdom, John McCain, with no small thanks to Mike Huckabee, is in better shape this morning than either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Whether you judge by the arithmetic of delegate counts or by the strength of the alternative(s), McCain is a lot closer to his acceptance speech than Democrats are to deciding who will be delivering one come next August in Denver.

But this is not a conventional year.
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