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  Poll shows Bush job approval rating back up
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Last EditedNone Entered  Oct 13, 2003 06:43pm
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CategoryPoll
MediaNewspaper - San Francisco Chronicle
News DateMonday, October 13, 2003 08:00:00 AM UTC0:0
DescriptionPresident Bush's job approval rating, which had slumped in several recent polls, has bounced back to 56 percent in a CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll released Monday.
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D:350PartisanDemocrat ( -15.7538 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 03:48:43 AM UTC0:00
what would explain bush's bump? the CA and Arnold stuff?

I think so. Somehow the Republican rah-rah fest rubbed off on him. And it is Gallup.

 
D:239ArmyDem ( 5910.5693 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 04:19:28 AM UTC0:00
Correct. Certain polling (Gallup and WashPo in particular) has a tendency to reflect higher than usual numbers when averaged with other polls, whilst Zogby is typically lower than the average of most polls.

 
R:525PragCon 3.0 ( 199.7647 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 04:24:39 AM UTC0:00
That, and we've had a couple of good economic reports, and the outlook is improving. Next year will not be an easy race for the Dems. It is not an impossible win for the Dems by any stretch of the imagination, but they are going to need every planet and star to fall into perfect alignment to pull it off. Poll numbers really don't mean too much until we get to late Aug of next year. Walter Mondale led Reagan at one point, lest we forget, and Dole polled within one point of Clinton post-GOP convention in 1996.

 
D:414Eric ( 370.8646 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 04:28:09 AM UTC0:00
And Bush sr. was ahead of Cuomo in matchups at this point in 1992.

 
D:414Eric ( 370.8646 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 04:31:33 AM UTC0:00
Eric, Zogby also showed a +5% bump in his poll.

OK, but this still isn't much worth mentioning.

 
D:239ArmyDem ( 5910.5693 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 04:32:33 AM UTC0:00
Next year will not be an easy race for either party lest Bush implodes or Dems nominate an unelectable.

 
R:250Mr. Politics ( 191.5293 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 04:33:12 AM UTC0:00
And Bush sr. was ahead of Cuomo in matchups at this point in 1992

Bush Sr. was challenged by Bill Clinton in 92.

 
REFS:83-- ( 1800.0782 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 04:34:43 AM UTC0:00
That, and we've had a couple of good economic reports, and the outlook is improving. Next year will not be an easy race for the Dems. It is not an impossible win for the Dems by any stretch of the imagination, but they are going to need every planet and star to fall into perfect alignment to pull it off. Poll numbers really don't mean too much until we get to late Aug of next year.

If poll numbers don't mean much at this point, how do you think that the Democrats are going to need every planet to align, Nancy Reagan's astrologer, etc. in order to win? That is, if polls mean little now? ;-)

The bottom line will be the economy. Most folks are sick of the perpetual "job-loss recovery" and want this economy to benefit average folks, not the everage CEO. If Bush recovers the jobs the economy and "free trade" lost in the last few years, he'll be in a good position to win re-election. If people start to lose jobs again, Bush is in trouble.

The economic news has been rather positive. Republicans should hope this is the beginning of a longer trend if they hope to re-elect George "Patriot Act" Bush in 2004.


 
D:414Eric ( 370.8646 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 04:36:52 AM UTC0:00
Bush Sr. was challenged by Bill Clinton in 92.

I know, I'm saying that when Bush was matched against a well-known, strong Democrat, he still won.

 
R:525PragCon 3.0 ( 199.7647 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 04:44:58 AM UTC0:00
If poll numbers don't mean much at this point, how do you think that the Democrats are going to need every planet to align, Nancy Reagan's astrologer, etc. in order to win? That is, if polls mean little now? ;-)

1. It isn't easy to knock off an incumbent president, regardless of party.

2. Bush has solid support among his base and doesn't face a primary challenge, like his father did.

3. The mood that drafted Ross Perot into the race isn't present right now.

4. There are TOO MANY Democrats running for president, muddling their message.

 
D:15COSDem ( 3540.3062 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 05:07:16 AM UTC0:00
1992- Clinton, Harkin, Brown, Tsongas, Wilder, Kerry..... alot of Democrats yet we still won.

 
D:239ArmyDem ( 5910.5693 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 05:42:37 AM UTC0:00
"1. It isn't easy to knock off an incumbent president, regardless of party."

Generically, I agree.

"2. Bush has solid support among his base and doesn't face a primary challenge, like his father did."

The emergence of an issue where he must tack to the right wing or embrace the center could disrupt his base support. A vicious Supreme Court battle is one such example . .does he nominate the more centrist Alberto Gonzales and piss off his base, or does he nominate a hard core right winger and piss off the center?

"3. The mood that drafted Ross Perot into the race isn't present right now."

I disagree. If anything, a refreshing "outsider" third party/Indie candidate could do extremely well, IMHO.

"4. There are TOO MANY Democrats running for president, muddling their message."

It'll narrow. There were ten Republicans in 2000, and a bunch of Dems in 1992, etc.


 
R:267Thibo ( 186.6586 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 06:23:32 AM UTC0:00
"3. The mood that drafted Ross Perot into the race isn't present right now."

I don't think there will a Perot in 2004. And that alone is going to cause big problems from the Donkeys trying to unseat Bush.


Good job Mr President. We're still with you.

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 08:07:35 AM UTC0:00
"Good job Mr President. We're still with you." - Thibo

True dat.

 
D:318New York Democrat ( 247.7782 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 03:58:38 PM UTC0:00
It's encouraging news for the president, however before you tell him the country is with him, let's see some other polls. 38% of people said they will defintely vote against him and 38% said they will definitely vote for him and the rest can go either way. Sounds to me like November 2000 all over again.

 
D:410Joshua L. ( 2582.3230 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 05:15:05 PM UTC0:00
It is expected -- they kept falling for months, and it had to stop eventually.

I imagine he'll remain in the mid-50's until next November (unless something weird happens).

 
D:29Ced ( 441.6052 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 05:23:06 PM UTC0:00
Just posted an article on a "rebuttal" poll from Newsweek. Bush is right where he was a few weeks ago and actually his negatives ratings increased.

The people are not fooled by his Iraq PR campaign and until the economy shows consistent job growth then he will still languish in ratings on the economy.

 
R:250Mr. Politics ( 191.5293 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 11:39:38 PM UTC0:00
Are we going to rehash this over and over again every time a new approval poll comes out and shows an increase or decrease of a couple of points?

 
I:162dervish ( -52.4150 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 11:44:08 PM UTC0:00
Probably. It really won't matter for another 8-10 months.

 
D:414Eric ( 370.8646 points)
Tue, October 14, 2003 11:57:08 PM UTC0:00
BREAKING NEWS: ACCORDING TO THE LASTEST X TIMES POLL, BUSH'S APPROVAL RATINGS HAVE DROPPED TWO FULL POINTS!!!!!

 
I:162dervish ( -52.4150 points)
Wed, October 15, 2003 12:40:36 AM UTC0:00
two FULL points? no FRACTIONS????

 
D:414Eric ( 370.8646 points)
Wed, October 15, 2003 03:32:55 AM UTC0:00
You're the most idiotically biased person on this site. Everything is bad for Republicans, and the Democrats can do no wrong.

I'm so idiotically biased that Mr. Politics and Dervish agree with me!

 
R:525PragCon 3.0 ( 199.7647 points)
Wed, October 15, 2003 05:32:10 AM UTC0:00
[Link]

To show I am fair...here is a poll the Dems can rejoice over.

 
I:162dervish ( -52.4150 points)
Wed, October 15, 2003 08:14:05 PM UTC0:00
I disagree that I agree with you. Wait. What are we talking about?