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Hanging 'Em Up: August Expected To Yield House Retirements
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| Contributor | The Sunset Provision |
| Last Edited | The Sunset Provision Aug 11, 2007 11:48pm |
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| Category | News |
| Media | Website - Yahoo News |
| News Date | Sunday, August 12, 2007 05:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | As the House of Representatives adjourned for August recess, Republican and Democratic campaign committees braced for a rapid change of the 2008 battleground. The August after an election is historically a time when members of Congress who have contemplated retirements make up their mind, and the open seats they create will, in some way, alter the districts both parties' campaign committees decide to target the following year. This year, after losing their majority, it will be Republicans who feel the brunt of what could be a stampede to the exit.
"The recess period before an election year is a terrific time for a member to take a deep breath and think about their future," says Charlie Mahtesian, editor of the Almanac of American Politics. "If you're a Republican experiencing the minority for the first time in 12 years, the upcoming recess gives you an opportunity to reconsider whether you want to stick around," said Politico Congress writer Josh Kraushaar.
If a member will retire, August is when a campaign committee would like to hear about it; fifteen months is ample time for a candidate from the incumbent party to run a campaign. Late retirements hurt the GOP in 2006, Mathesian notes. While then-Representatives Tom DeLay and Bob Ney faced ethical trouble, they both represented relatively safe Republican seats, and neither ethical dilemma was a surprise. Had they announced their departures earlier, Republicans may have salvaged their seats. Congressman Peter Roskam, an Illinois freshman Republican, on the other hand, had plenty of time to prepare a campaign to replace Henry Hyde, who announced his retirement in early 2005.
The year after losing the majority, retirements from members of the new minority are common. In 1996, 28 Democrats decided against running for a second term, about twice the average rate. This year, some political watchers expect a dozen or more Republicans to announce their retirements. Those who would call it quits generally fit int |
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