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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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A GOP comeback strategy
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| Parent(s) |
Race
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| Contributor | Scott³ |
| Last Edited | Scott³ Jul 23, 2007 01:34am |
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[Older]
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| Category | Opinion |
| Media | Newspaper - Los Angeles Times |
| News Date | Sunday, July 15, 2007 07:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Opinion by Frank Luntz in the Los Angeles Times.
An excerpt...
"ALL THE BIG questions for 2008 are on the Democratic side: Can Hillary Clinton show her humanity? Does Obama have enough experience? Will Edwards find a cheaper barber?
But there is one big question that has hardly been asked at all, mostly because it threatens to upset the narrative of the best election in decades: Do Republicans have any chance whatsoever of winning the White House in 2008? Given the extraordinary unpopularity of the Bush administration, isn't the Democratic candidate, whoever he or she ultimately is, going to be a shoo-in?
The simple answer is that it doesn't look good for the Republicans. A GOP victory is not absolutely out of the question, of course, but getting there would take a forward-looking agenda, unparalleled message discipline, a strict focus on the millions of independent voters, an innovative candidate and campaign and a lot of luck.
In other words, don't bet on it.
The Republican failure in the 2006 midterm elections was catastrophic — and the situation is even worse today for the party. Consider the following three "leading indicators" of how the country will vote:
• The electorate is the most pessimistic in a generation. Just 19% of Americans believe that the country is headed in the right direction, while 75% believe that things are "off on the wrong track," according to a "CBS News" national survey conducted last month. Most of the country is in a nasty, irritable mood, and incumbent parties are historically tossed out of power when expectations turn so ugly.
• The president's approval ratings are barely hovering in the upper 20s, an all-time low, having plummeted since his reelection less than three years ago. In the last 50 years, only Richard Nixon had a lower approval score. And not since Harry Truman in 1948 has a political party maintained the White House with an incumbent so personally unpopular." |
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