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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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Tennessee and the ‘15% Lie’
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| Parent(s) |
Race
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| Contributor | RP |
| Last Edited | RP Oct 26, 2006 12:47pm |
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| Category | Analysis |
| News Date | Thursday, October 26, 2006 12:25:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Polls have often shown African-American candidates scoring well in the polls only to fail to clinch the election. In 1990, former Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young drew wide support from white business leaders in his run for Georgia governor but lost in the Democratic primary. The same year, former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt challenged Sen. Jesse Helms — one of the South’s most vocal opponents of racial integration in the 1960s — and was well ahead in the polls but nevertheless lost. Even former Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, who is the only black elected to a governorship in the U.S., won in 1989 by a much narrower margin — half a percentage point — than the 10% indicated in exit polls.
Some political scientists and strategists refer to it as the “15% lie” — when whites, bowing to societal pressure, tell pollsters they intend to vote for a black candidate but fail to do so in the voting booths. Indeed, several political experts believe that despite Harold Ford Jr.’s strong showing in the polls, some whites may desert him at the last minute. |
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