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There They Go Again: Times coverage of GDP is completely misleading
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| Contributor | Tony82 |
| Last Edited | Tony82 Feb 01, 2005 10:31pm |
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| Category | Commentary |
| News Date | Tuesday, February 1, 2005 06:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Both the headline and the thrust of the story by [New York] Times writer Louis Uchitelle suggest a big slowdown in economic growth. While this is statistically correct, it is analytically wrong. The main thought behind the story — that the economy has registered its “weakest quarterly pace in nearly two years, held down by a surge in imports” — is completely misleading.
Underneath the headline number of 3.1 percent real GDP growth was a huge 5.5 percent increase in private-sector output (less government spending and trade). Private consumption and business investment comprises 80 percent of GDP — a factoid the Times never relates. In fact, the tell-tale number in this latest GDP report is the outsized 15 percent gain in business investment — the single most important swing factor in economic activity.
Within this number, equipment and software investment jumped 13 percent. This is what Wall Street calls “cap ex”; it expands the entire economic infrastructure. Behind this investment explosion is the 20 percent rise in 2004 corporate profits. Business earnings allow firms to expand and grow the economy — and jobs, too. When profits rise, the economy expands. When profits fall, the economy contracts.
Meanwhile, the private domestic economy, which is the real engine of American growth, increased 5.4 percent in 2004 compared to 3.4 percent in 2003. Business investment more than doubled the gain for 2003. And, of course, 2.3 million payroll jobs were created this past year. Meanwhile, core inflation rose a tepid 1.5 percent over the past four quarters. Treasury bonds now yield a breathtakingly low 4.15 percent, a great omen for low mortgage rates and continued housing gains. At 5.4 percent unemployment, overall personal income is up about 5 percent. Pretty impressive, wouldn’t you say?
Not for the Times. The left-leaning Uchitelle worked hard to make the worst out of a good story. |
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