Home About Chat Users Issues Party Candidates Polling Firms Media News Polls Calendar Key Races United States President Senate House Governors International

New User Account
"A collaborative political resource." 
Email: Password:

  Congressional Redistricting 2011-2012
Parent Issue
Redistricting 
ISSUE DETAILS
ContributorJ.R.   
Last ModifiedJ.R. September 21, 2012 03:24pm
DescriptionRedistricting that theoretically benefits Republicans:
Georgia - +1R
Indiana - shift 1 D to 1 R
Massachusetts - -1D
Michigan - -1D
Missouri - -1D
New Jersey - -1D
North Carolina - shift 3 D to 3 R
Pennsylvania - -1D
South Carolina - +1R
Utah - shift 1D to 2R

Redistricting that theoretically benefits Democrats:
Arizona - shift 1R & 1D to 3T
California - shift 4 R to 4 D
Colorado - 2 tossup districts with R incumbents.
Illinois - shift 5 R to 4 D
Louisiana - -1 R
Maryland - shift 1 R to 1 D
Nevada - +1D
Washington - +1D

Redistricting that doesn't necessarily benefit either party.
Iowa - combine 1 D and 1 R into 1 Tossup
Ohio - -1R and -1D

Incumbent Protection Plans
Alabama
Arkansas
Hawaii
Idaho
Kentucky
Maine
Mississippi
Nebraska
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Oregon
Tennessee
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Singer Member States
Alaska
Delaware
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Vermont
Wyoming

Redistricting where outcome is too soon to tell:
Connecticut
Florida
Kansas
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New York
Rhode Island
Texas - + 3 D, + 1 T (in court)

Incumbent vs. Incumbent Races:

General:
IA-03: Boswell (D) vs. Latham (R)
OH-16: Sutton (D) vs. Renacci (R)

Primary:
AZ-06: Quayle (R) vs. Schweikert (R)
CA-30: Berman (D) vs. Sherman (D)
CA-44: Hahn (D) vs. Richardson (D)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) vs. Manzullo (R)
LA-03: Boustany (R) vs. Landry (R)
MI-14: Peters (D) vs. Clarke (D)
NJ-09: Rothman (D) vs. Pascrell (D)
OH-09: Kaptur (D) vs. Kucinich (D)

INFORMATION LINKS

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
May 10, 2012 06:00am News Seriously, What’s the Matter With Kansas?  Article John 
Jan 27, 2012 06:00pm News Texas Dems, minority groups near huge win with redistricting settlement  Article TX DEM 
Jan 20, 2012 11:00am News Supreme Court rejects judge-drawn Texas election maps  Article J.R. 
Dec 09, 2011 06:40pm News High court to decide Texas election maps  Article particleman 
Nov 23, 2011 12:35pm News Democrats get big win with Texas court's redistricting map  Article John 
Nov 16, 2011 05:00pm News Democrats catch another break on redistricting in Colorado   Article John 

DISCUSSION
[View All
227
Previous Messages]
 
D:1656The Sunset Provision ( 1384.6633 points)
Wed, December 28, 2011 10:22:32 PM UTC0:00
Why is Virginia purple on the above map? Congressional redistricting has not been completed there.

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Wed, December 28, 2011 10:37:45 PM UTC0:00
At first glance that looks like a really good map for the Republicans. At the very least it puts more on the table for favourable cycles. 4, 5 and 8 should stay solid red and 3 appears also strengthened, though most likely still swingy. 2, 7, 9 and 10 solid blue most likely with 1 and 6 rather without precedent. 1 looks to me like all the parts of Larsen's that lean Republican while 6 has been Democratic for eons but appears to have lost part of its Tacoma connection. I think this one ends up 5-5.

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Wed, December 28, 2011 10:39:03 PM UTC0:00
Actually, if it did end up 5-5 with the foreseen split it would highlight the east-west divide even more than before. :P

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Wed, December 28, 2011 11:02:10 PM UTC0:00
It is a fairly good map for the Republicans. Here's how I see it:

1: Flat-out swing district
2: Strong D
3: Swing - lean R
4: Safe R
5: Strong R
6: Strong D
7: Safe D
8: Lean R
9: Safe D
10: Swing - lean D

#1 picked up some of the suburbs at the north end of Lake Washington, which are fairly populous and Democratic, which keeps this from being swing lean-R

#6 lost some Tacoma territory, but only the GOP-tilting Tacoma suburbs, so not a net negative for D performance. It also lost Democratic Pacific county, but picked up Democratic (and more populous) Bainbridge.

#3 has moved a bit R, but not much. Lost Olympia, but picked up Pacific. Still a swing seat, if leaning R.

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Wed, December 28, 2011 11:08:29 PM UTC0:00
Under further consideration, 10 should probably be just Lean D.

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Wed, December 28, 2011 11:40:03 PM UTC0:00
The open first is certainly the biggest surprise. Until now everybody assumed it would continue to be a Democratic district, so all the announcements have been on that side and no established Republican has entered. I would assume that will change rather quickly and it strengthens Steve Hobbs' candidacy as the moderate in the race. Darcy Burner has got to be angry with how this worked out.

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Thu, December 29, 2011 12:02:14 AM UTC0:00
Hmm. I think Redmond might be in the 1st.

 
D:6506TEXAN FOR HILLARY ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, December 29, 2011 12:08:34 AM UTC0:00
So Washington has an independent commission?

 
D:704John ( 3346.7625 points)
Thu, December 29, 2011 12:22:17 AM UTC0:00
The Washington Post went a little bit into the first: [Link] Apparently, Obama won it, but so did Rossi in 2008/10. Definitely a swing district, though the Post seems to think the Dems will be favored.

 
D:704John ( 3346.7625 points)
Thu, December 29, 2011 12:22:53 AM UTC0:00
TEXAN FOR HILLARY: So Washington has an independent commission?

It has a bipartisan commission-two Dems and two Republicans.

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Thu, December 29, 2011 12:40:13 AM UTC0:00
I think the Democrats are favoured in the new 1st right now for sure, certainly because the Republicans lack a big name. If they can get a known candidate quickly I could see it going either way, also depending on who the Democratic candidate ultimately is.

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Thu, December 29, 2011 12:52:55 AM UTC0:00
Republicans had wanted to create the Snohomish-based district that would lean Republican

That's really difficult to do without crossing the Cascades. I guess if you took this 1st and dropped the north Lake Washington suburbs and extended it down through eastern King you might do it.

 
D:2064TX DEM ( 3224.4231 points)
Thu, December 29, 2011 01:06:25 AM UTC0:00
DailyKos is saying that the new WA-01 is D+1.

 
D:917NYDem Junior ( 1973.3054 points)
Thu, December 29, 2011 02:45:35 AM UTC0:00
This is almost a GOP gerrymander.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Sat, December 31, 2011 06:51:41 AM UTC0:00
Why do all redistricting commissions lean Democratic? :(

 
D:917NYDem Junior ( 1973.3054 points)
Sat, December 31, 2011 06:16:47 PM UTC0:00
Outside of Arizona and Colorado, most have been either fair or R leaning. NJ was a draw because dems won the state side and R's won the federal side. PA was a huge win for R's on the state side. It technically was a commission with a tie breaker.

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Fri, January 6, 2012 10:41:20 PM UTC0:00

 
D:917NYDem Junior ( 1973.3054 points)
Fri, January 6, 2012 10:43:49 PM UTC0:00
the 8th is now a solid R district. Takes in all the blood red memphis burbs. Might be a primary issue for Fincher thoug.

 
D:2064TX DEM ( 3224.4231 points)
Fri, January 6, 2012 11:39:41 PM UTC0:00
Incumbent protection?

 
D:704John ( 3346.7625 points)
Fri, January 6, 2012 11:40:50 PM UTC0:00
Does this lock up Jim Cooper's district?

 
D:8084Juror #3 ( 186.4846 points)
Sat, January 7, 2012 01:17:18 AM UTC0:00
Maybe slightly more R, as it takes in GOP parts of Davidson from the 7th, and those two rural counties might be slightly more conservative than Robertson County. They are yellow dog counties, though, and should vote for a moderate/conservative Dem.

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Sat, January 7, 2012 01:19:57 AM UTC0:00
Supposed to be a few points more Dem.

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Sat, January 7, 2012 01:20:45 AM UTC0:00
Cooper's new district is about D+4.5, which is up from the D+2.5/D+3 it currently is.

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Fri, January 13, 2012 11:07:03 PM UTC0:00
Apparently Michigan is also a preclearance state due to the Cluyde and Buena Vista townships.

The Republicans in the legislature decided that the Obama DOJ was not to be trusted, so they decided to litigate in court instead.

The DoJ has just granted preclearance to their maps. But this has no legal effect due to this decision.

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Tue, January 17, 2012 10:43:22 PM UTC0:00
What states do we not have maps in for?

DKE/Swing State Project has Google maps for most states - [Link]