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How are Polling Firm points, average error and bias calculated?
For each Race the Polling Firm has polled, the poll closest to the actual result day is taken. |
The undecided voters are added to each Candidate's poll result in proportion to the poll result so the poll results total to 100%.
The actual result for each candidate is subtracted from this poll result.
This value is subtracted from the Bias amount for that Candidate's Party. Note that this value can be positive or negative, so bias in one direction can cancel another poll with bias in another direction.
The absolute value of the (actual-poll) calculation is summed for each pollster and then divided by the total number of samples for the Average Error.
The calculation for Polling Firm points is:
(1+(Actual Result}*0.075))-abs(Actual Result-Poll)/1.5
|Last Modified||RP - July 07, 2010 07:37pm|