So, predictions at the beginning of August for the US Govt. Note: count the VP as the tie-breaker if you think the Senate will end up even.

9 out of 10 shot Republicans take the House. 3 out of 4 shot Democrats take the White House. 1 out of 2 shot Democrats (or Republicans) take Senate.

9 out of 10 shot Republicans take the House. 3 out of 4 shot Democrats take the White House. 1 out of 2 shot Democrats (or Republicans) take Senate. I'm with you except on the Senate. I'm sure it will be easily within R hands. 58R-40D-2I

That's what I meant. Republicans are going to pick up 11 seats. At least.

I'm with you except on the Senate. I'm sure it will be easily within R hands. 58R-40D-2I Where the hell are you getting that many GOP pickups? I'd love it, but I'm thinking like 51 Rs at most. Maybe 52.

Where the hell are you getting that many GOP pickups? I'd love it, but I'm thinking like 51 Rs at most. Maybe 52. Pickups: Nebraska Montana Wisconsin North Dakota Missouri Predicting it goes R but it's possible it goes D: Virginia Florida Massachusetts Predicting it goes D but it's possible it goes R: Hawaii New Mexico Connecticut

Massachusetts wouldn't be a pickup, it would be a hold. And no losses? You think Angus King will caucus with the Republicans?

Massachusetts wouldn't be a pickup, it would be a hold. And no losses? You think Angus King will caucus with the Republicans? Actually yes, i do think he will go with the Republicans. I didn't say Massachusetts was a pickup for R, rather a possible pickup for D. I should have labeled them all as Tossups.

I'm calling bullsh*t since you said the GOP would pick up 11 seats and then listed 11 states including MA.

The Republican PaGuy.

I'm calling bullsh*t since you said the GOP would pick up 11 seats and then listed 11 states including MA. Yes, I seem to have written the wrong numbers. 54-44-2 Pickups: NE/ND/MT/MO/WI/VA/FL 58 would only be possible if CT/HW/NM/OH went Republican, which is no longer as likely as it was last year. Sorry for the confusion.

Actually yes, i do think he will go with the Republicans. That's not going to happen. He supports PPACA, same-sex marriage, opposes offshore drilling, and endorsed Obama in '08, IIRC. There's no way he'll caucus Republican. Of course, I never really considered Olympia Snowe a Republican anyway, so whether or not it's a loss (apart from statistics, obviously) is debatable.

And we're the party with the small tent. Olympia Snowe is a Republican in the same way Jason Altmire and members of the Blue Dog Coalition are Democrats. Sure they're registered in the party, but they buck the platform on multiple issues. I've got nothing against it; heck, I do the same thing. I'm more of a Goldwater Republican than the neoconservative-dominated party the GOP has turned into.

When was the last time (if ever) that the Senate has flipped to one party's control while the other party won the presidential election?

And yeah, the House stays Republican for sure. Dems gain high single or low teens.

When was the last time (if ever) that the Senate has flipped to one party's control while the other party won the presidential election? Technically, it was 2000.

But it didn't flip until Jeffords jumped ship. I mean as a consequence of the actual voting.

Jeffords was later. In 2000, the formerly GOP Senate was tied 50-50 with Gore breaking the tie. That tie was flipped as soon as Bush/Cheney took office.

Yeah, 2000 & 2002 were certainly odd historically. Bush wins the presidency in 2000 and nearly loses the Senate and then in a midterm election picks up the Senate!

...

Since the douchenozzles at CNN don't play this anymore, here's the (awesome) music they used to play on Election Nights past. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw

I actually kind of dig the election music MSNBC trotted out in 2010.

It's electiony, but also kinda makes me feel like I should be riding into battle against an army of Orcs.

CNN/ORCs?